Utah Valley University Herbarium

Ecological Niche Prediction: Nuphar

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Current Climate

Year 2050 Predicted Climate


This is an ecological niche prediction based on the BIOCLIM method. The prediction is only as good as the data used. It works best when the search results are a species or some other related set of specimen. Searches on families, places or collectors will not provide reliable or meaningful results.

Calculation done using AVID, the command line version of DIVA-GIS. We are using the maximum temperature of the warmest month, the coldest temperature of the coldest month, the range between them, and the annual precipitation at the known specimen locations to develop a set of "rules", then plot the probability of meeting the rules at all points on the map.

This is not an exact science. Limited specimen locations, bias in the areas collected, and the abbreviated or estimated nature of the climate data (particularly the 2050 data) all result in improper estimations of occurrence. Treat these maps as rough estimates only.

BIOCLIM: Busby, J. R. BIOCLIM - a bioclimate analysis and prediction system. pp. 64-68 in Margueles, C. R. and Austin, M. P. (eds) Nature Conservation: Cost Effective Biological Surveys and Data Analysis. 1991. Melbourn: CSIRO.

Current climate source: Worldclim, version 1.3, October 2004

2050 Climate source: B. Govindasamy, P. B. Duffy, J. Coquard, 2003. High-resolution simulations of global climate, part 2: effects of increased greenhouse cases. Climate Dynamics 21: 391404.

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